Posts (page 2)

Check out http://capitalmarkets.cbre.com/ for all the latest real estate capital markets news. This is from the latest eNews.

• Amid stress in the capital markets, Fannie Mae raised $7.4 billion of additional capital in May, for a total of more than $14 billion in new capital since November of 2007. Fannie Mae announced end of last week that its capital level is substantially above both their statutory minimum capital and the OFHEO-required 15 percent surplus over minimum capital. Representatives at Fannie Mae stated, “In fact, we have more core capital, and a higher surplus over our regulatory requirement, than at any time in this company's history. As we work through this tough housing market, we are maintaining a strong capital base, building reserves for our credit losses, and generating solid revenues as our business continues to serve the market.”

• The SEC will begin a review of fair-value accounting rules that are causing chaos for some real estate investors. Those rules have forced certain lenders and investment managers to take sharp writedowns against the value of some of their debt investments, including CMBS. The roundtable of accountants, bankers, insurers and investors is expected to focus part of the discussion on FAS 157, a financial accounting standard that took effect late last year. It requires asset-backed securities, including CMBS, mortgages and other debt investments, to be marked to market or valued at the price they would fetch if sold today versus their capitalization rates or values if they were held for their full investment time frames.

• Despite declining origination volume, loan quality has improved. The percentage of amortizing loans in the 2008 vintage has risen to near 35%, up significantly from 2006 and 2007 and underwritten debt-service-coverage ratios have leveled off from their five year decline, reports JP Morgan.

• The MBA reports, across all mortgage loan types (prime, nontraditional, and subprime) lenders are reporting tighter underwriting standards. The greatest relative increase can be seen in the prime sector. Respondents reporting tighter underwriting standards have increased to 62% (Q2 2008) from 15% (Q2 2007).

Posted by: Richard

Tom Kloza of OPIS recently posted his thoughts on oil prices. While he does not go into the reasons, this is a good read.

Posted by: Richard

Retailers Post Mixed June Sales Results
New York City (July 10, 2008) Shoppers, enticed by heavy discounts and armed with rebate checks, spent more freely in June, helping to lift many retailers' sales, according to the Associated Press.

As the nation's retailers reported June sales figures on Thursday, discounters and wholesale club operators including Wal-Mart Stores Inc., BJ's Wholesale Club Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. reported better-than-expected figures as consumers limited purchases mainly to groceries and other necessities.

Advance Auto to Grow Minn. Operations
Roanake, Va. (July 10, 2008) Advance Auto Parts Inc. is growing its Minnesota operations, according to a report in The Roanoke Times.

The company plans to transfer 40 jobs from its headquarters to the Twin Cities.

Office Depot Opens First Green Store
Delray Beach, Fla. (July 10, 2008) Office Depot is opening in Austin, Texas its first "Green" store on Thursday.

Office Depot's "Green" store, which is pre-certified to Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) standards by the U.S. Green Building Council, will use less energy and water in its daily operations, increase recycling and leave a much smaller overall environmental footprint than the typical store of its size.

Linens 'n Things to Shutter More Locations
Clifton, N.J. (July 10, 2008) Bankrupt retailer Linens 'n Things Inc. has asked a judge for permission to close 87 more stores, according to The Record.

The report said Linens 'n Things referenced "the decline in the housing market and the tightening of the credit markets which have led, respectively, to a decline in consumer discretionary spending," in court papers filed July 3.

Best Buy Looks to New Categories to Drive Sales
Atlanta (July 9, 2008) Best Buy Co. is looking to new product categories and business models to help it double annual sales to $80 billion over the next five years, according to a Reuters report.

Mike Vitelli, executive VP for customer operating groups, reported at an Oppenheimer Consumer Growth Conference that while Best Buy will add stores and boost its market share in mainstay categories such as computers and cell phones to drive growth, it plans to move into product areas that are outside traditional consumer electronics.

Payless ShoeSource Names President, CEO
Topeka, Kan. (July 9, 2008) Collective Brands Inc. said Wednesday that it has named retail veteran LuAnn Via as president and CEO for the Payless ShoeSource chain.

Via replaces Matt Rubel, who will continue as chairman and CEO of Topeka-based parent company Collective Brands.

Blockbuster Names Marketing Head
Dallas (July 9, 2008) Blockbuster Inc. has named Rebeca "Becky" Johnson as chief marketing officer. Johnson brings almost three decades of experience in retail marketing, branding, consumer strategies and marketing communications to her new role.

Johnson previously served Brinker International, the parent company of casual dining restaurants, as CMO and global branding officer.

Back-to-School Spending Expected Rise 5%
New York City (July 9, 2008) Consumers said they plan to spend an average of $590 on back-to-school clothes and supplies this year, according to a survey conducted by Brand Keys, a New York City-based brand and customer loyalty research consultancy.

"It appears that the current economic situation has dampened back-to-school share-of-wallet," said Robert Passikoff, president, Brand Keys. "We can only expect a 5% increase in spending this year."

Liz Claiborne Inc. Names Senior VP, CIO
New York City (July 9, 2008) Liz Claiborne announced that Evon L. Jones will join the company as senior VP and CIO, effective July 14.

Jones joins Liz Claiborne Inc. from Bausch & Lomb in Rochester, N.Y., where he was corporate VP and CIO. 

Charming Shoppes CEO Resigns
Bensalem, Pa. (July 9, 2008) Charming Shoppes Inc. said Wednesday its president and CEO, Dorrit J. Bern, is resigning, effective immediately, and that it will take a charge in the second quarter related to her employment contract.

The company said its chairman, Alan Rosskamm, will serve as CEO on an interim basis. Rosskamm was formerly the chairman and CEO of Jo-Ann Stores Inc.

Wilsons Sells Outlet Stores for $22M
Minneapolis (June 9, 2008) Wilsons The Leather Experts Inc. on Tuesday said it sold its outlet stores and online retail assets to a subsidiary of sportswear and outerwear maker G-III Apparel Group Ltd. for about $22.3 million in cash, according to the Associated Press.

AM Apparel Group Inc., a unit of G-III, bought 116 outlet store locations, $18.5 million in inventory, distribution center operations, the Wilsons name and other related trademarks and trade names. 

Report: Steve & Barry's May Face Bankruptcy
Port Washington, N.Y. (July 9, 2008) Steve & Barry's is expected to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy as early as this week, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

The report, which cited people familiar with the matter, said the retail chain had been unable to raise rescue financing.

Amazon.com Offers Billing Option
Seattle (July 8, 2008) Beginning Tuesday, Amazon.com shoppers have the option to pay via the "Bill Me Later" service rather than with a credit card. In December 2007, Amazon.com announced it would make an investment in the Bill Me Later company and subsequently begin to offer the service to its customers.

The Bill Me Later network provides technologies that enable online retailers to provide payment options for shoppers who prefer not to use credit cards.

Golf Galaxy Closing Headquarters
Eden Prairie, Minn. (July 8, 2008) Specialty retailer Golf Galaxy, a subsidiary of Dick's Sporting Goods, announced it will close the Golf Galaxy corporate headquarters in Eden Prairie and relocate corporate functions to the Dick's Sporting Goods headquarters in Findlay Township, Penn.

According to the company's SEC filing, Randy Zanatta, co-founder and chief executive of Golf Galaxy, will resign his duties effective July 18.

Coldwater Creek and DSW Announce Strategic Moves
Boston (July 8, 2008) Addressing the Oppenheimer & Co. Consumer Growth Conference on Tuesday, Coldwater Creek chief executive and president Daniel Griesemer outlined a strategic path to profitability that included improved product offerings, improved operation efficiencies and a more prudent, managed approach to growth.

In addition to focusing on opportunistic leases and store openings in selective locations, Coldwater Creek will re-focus its merchandising strategy on pant-and-jacket ensembles, which account for an estimated 50% of sales.

Wal-Mart May Boost Canadian Expansion
Toronto (July 8, 2008) A Monday Bloomberg report suggested that Wal-Mart Stores Inc. may up the number of Canadian supercenters it opens in 2008.

According to a BMO Capital Markets analyst cited in the report, Wal-Mart may expand with 40 or 50 Canadian stores, with half being new supercenters and one-third from conversions of other sites to the larger format, by the end of January.

Stater Bros. to Offer $4 Generics
San Bernardino, Calif. (July 8, 2008) Grocery retailer Stater Bros. announced Tuesday that it will begin offering a 30-day supply of the most commonly prescribed drugs for $4, starting Wednesday. The company will offer a 90-day supply of those generics for $10.

Earlier this year, similar programs were announced by Kroger Co. and Safeway. On Tuesday, St. Louis-based Dierbergs Markets rolled out similar pricing on more than 350 generic medications.

Office Depot 2Q Same-Store Sales Drop 10%
Delray Beach, Fla. (July 8, 2008) Office Depot announced Tuesday that the slowing economy has driven second-quarter same-store sales down 10%.

The company also said that weakening business conditions have pushed total company sales down slightly in the second quarter.

DSW Opens Store in El Centro, Calif.
Columbus, Ohio (July 7, 2008) DSW said it will be opening a new store at the Plaza Imperial Valley in El Centro, Calif. on Thursday. The store will be the first DSW location in the Yuma/El Centro area.

The 20,000-sq.-ft. location features hardwood floors, brick walls, and accent walls marked with DSW-signature phrases. The company said modern fixtures, sleek merchandise displays and comfortable seating create a remarkable shopping experience.

RadioShack Launches Facebook Photo Application
Fort Worth, Texas (July 7, 2008) RadioShack has launched a new Facebook application called "RadioShack's MyMosaic," which allows members to create mosaics using their online photos.

RadioShack's MyMosaic creates a digital mosaic from a selected image. The image is made up of many smaller photos, forming one picture. Users can click on the mosaic and go deeper and deeper into additional image layers of the mosaic made up of their friends' profile photos.

Dierbergs Unveils Cheaper Generic Drugs
St. Louis (July 7, 2008) Dierbergs Markets plans to roll out new pricing on Tuesday for more than 350 generic medications.

Beginning Tuesday, Dierbergs customers will be able to buy 30-day prescriptions for $4 and 90-day prescriptions for $10 from a list of commonly prescribed generic drugs. Greg Dierberg, president of the 23-store chain, said the current economic climate created the right time to introduce the program, which the company began planning late last year.

Kroger Inks Deals with Ala., Tenn. Unions
Cincinnati (July 7, 2008) United Food & Commercial Workers Union members at Alabama and Tennessee Kroger stores have signed a new labor agreement with the grocery chain.

The agreement covers more than 8,500 Kroger Co. workers at more than 90 stores in Nashville and Knoxville, Tenn., and Huntsville, Ala. 

Report: Strip-Mall Vacancies Hit 30-Year High
New York City (July 7, 2008) U.S. store closings and cutbacks turned the second quarter into the worst for strip-mall owners in 30 years, as consumers flocked to low-cost warehouse-style grocery centers, according to the Associated Press, citing a recent report by real estate research firm Reis.

Strip malls saw average vacancies spike 0.5% points to 8.2%, a level unseen since 1995, according to the report released on Monday.

Study: 10% of Consumers are 'Multichannel' Shoppers
New York City (July 7, 2008) A study by Experian Consumer Research found that nearly 10% of the U.S. population could be considered multichannel shoppers.

According to Experian, multichannel shoppers are those people who regularly participate in more than one method of shopping, including online, in-store, catalog, and phone order.

Ashley Judd Designs Plus-Size Clothing Line for Goody's
Knoxville, Tenn. (July 7, 2008) Goody's Family Clothing, Inc. announced that Goody's will launch a new line of clothing designed by Ashley Judd for plus-sized women. The "Ashley Judd Plus" line will be available in 150 Goody's stores beginning in August 2008.

The news follows the strong performance of Ashley Judd's current collection, which has been sold exclusively at Goody's since September 2007.

Jewel-Osco Sells 1 Million Reusable Shopping Bags
Melrose Park, Ill. (July 7, 2008) Jewel-Osco announced that it has surpassed the sale of 1 million green reusable shopping bags.

"We are seeing more and more people buying and using recyclable shopping bags," said Keith Nielsen, president of Jewel-Osco. "This is likely due to the heightened awareness about the environment and the impact of plastic bags in landfills."

Circuit City Director Resigns from Board
Richmond, Va. (July 7, 2008) Circuit City announced that its lead outside director Mikael Salovaara resigned from its board, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Salovaara, who was chairman of the nominating and governance committee in addition to lead director, resigned just one day after Blockbuster Inc. said it was withdrawing its proposal to buy Circuit City Stores Inc.

We reviewed over 1,500 retail transactions totaling $17.6 billion from 2003 to June 2008 maintained in the CBRE Valuation & Advisory Services (VAS) database. Average retail capitalization rates in Southern California are up since last year. 

So far in 2008, the average cap rate was 6.11%, while the 2007 average was 5.95%, a modest increase of 16 b.p. The chart below contains the results from 2003 through Q2 2008.

The picture becomes rather murky when we examine the quarterly trend. Rates hovered below 6% through Q1 2007, then spiked over 6% in 2007 Q2, only to revert below 6% again through 2008 Q1. Due to this volatility, it makes more sense to put more weight on the longer term average. The chart below summarizes the data.

We won't go into the reasons here, but sales volume is down as well. Based on our records, Southern California Retail sales transactions in Q1 2008 were down nearly 70% compared to Q1 2007. We estimate that Q4 2007 volume is down over 50% compared to Q4 2006. 2008 Q2 is too early to call, but early indications are at most 60% from Q2 2007.

We are considering making this a regular publication. If this is useful to you, please let us know.

Posted by: Richard

Opis is an excellent resource we use to track fuel margins for gas station appraisals. Tom Kloza knows what he is talking about. His latest post is here:

http://blogs.opisnet.com/archive/2008/06/12/how-the-pinch-may-steal-summer.aspx

Posted by: Richard

I attended the above function yesterday in Santa Monica. The agenda was:

Economic Outlook

“Slower Growth Ahead, but How Slow?”

Abby Marks

Economist, Torto Wheaton Research

Abby says that we are info slow growth retail sales growth over the next year or so, but not negative. Excluding energy and food, inflation is not that bad.

CBRE Retail Services

Overview & Perspective

Anthony Buono

Executive Managing Director, CBRE

CBRE has more retail brokers than any other firm. He also mentioned that times are really tough right now, especially for investment sales.

Occupier & Developer Panel

Moderator: Richard Rizika

Executive Vice President, CBRE

Panelists: Gary Safady, O&S Holdings

Paul Moulton, Costco

John Klein, Equinox

Steve Horowitz, Citi Trends

Jeff Forman, La Curacao 

In general, all of these tenants are expanding.

Capital Markets Panel

Moderator: Phil Voorhees

Senior Vice President, CBRE

Panelists: Joe Dykstra, Westwood Financial

Simon Honeybone, Sarofim Realty

Bruce Francis, CBRE/Capital Markets

Tom McDonough, Equity One

Paul Mittman, PASSCO Companies, LLC

Cap rates are up 25-50 bp according to the panel. Debt financing has been the biggest problem aside from unrealistic seller expectations that values have not gone down.

Keynote

Ron Pompei

Principal of Pompei A.D.

These guys are partnered with Archon and CBRE to develop new generation retail that incorporates community, etc. Check here for more info: http://www.pompeiad.com/ They are looking for sites in San Diego, Los Angeles, and SF.

From CBRE Capital Markets eNews: In a new report, Fitch Ratings said a 15 percent drop in property values would do relatively little to adversely impact the credit ratings of older vintage U.S. CMBS, including tranches deemed impaired. The report tested fixed-rate loans maturing through 2012, and Fitch concluded that the older CMBS vintages were “well-insulated” from a 15 percent drop in property value.

Investors.com reported that rising consumer prices, better-thanexpected economic data, and inflation warnings by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke have raised expectations that the central bank will hike interest rates this year. Futures traders have priced in a quarter-point rise to 2.25% by October. That follows several hawkish speeches by Bernanke, including a June 12 vow to "strongly resist" mounting inflation pressures. But many economists say that inflation remains tame despite soaring energy and food prices. They say it would be premature to raise rates while the economy remains weak and credit is still tight.

According to the MBA, commercial real estate investors—inside and outside the United States—could find pockets of opportunities in commercial real estate despite the continuation of re-pricing risk. Foreign banks and other lending institutions have increased their interest in the U.S. market. This is also opening opportunities for U.S. real estate investors that are finding debt too difficult to obtain at home. This is particularly relevant for large transactions of more than $50 million, which have become difficult to place amid the debt correction as that segment of the market was dominated by CMBS.

Oil remains the wild-card in the deck that could determine the length and breadth of the current economic slump. Record oil prices are now in full effect as prices at the pump are above $4 per gallon in most areas. Although oil prices retreated earlier this week, talk of a $150 target for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate has touched off a speculative rally pushing the price to $138, reported Commercial Real Estate Direct.

Posted by: Richard